This report is for educational purposes only, and not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult a investment professional.
While I try to be accurate, I assume no responsibility for any figure in this spreadsheet. Estimates Estimates Estimates
See my website on stocks or see my blog at the following sites. www.spbrunner.com/stocks.html www.spbrunner.blogspot.com/ Q3 2017
Cenovus Energy Inc. TSX: CVE NYSE: CVE www.cenovus.com Fiscal Yr: Dec 31 9/30/17
Year 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09 12/31/10 12/31/11 12/31/12 12/31/13 12/31/14 12/31/15 12/31/16 12/31/17 12/31/18 12/31/19 Value Description #Y Item Total G Curr
Accounting Rules C GAAP IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS Accounting Rules
Currency Exchange Rate 1.1630 1.1652 0.9881 1.2240 1.0501 0.9970 1.0213 0.9968 1.0636 1.1601 1.3847 1.3427 1.2773 1.2773 1.2773
split 2 2.06
AEC to ECA
Rev US$ pre 09 $14,266 $16,399 $21,466 $30,064
Revenue US$ $6,925.2 $7,960.7 $10,420.4 $14,594.2 $10,967.3 $12,679.0 $15,368.2 $16,896 $17,541 $16,931 $9,434 $9,037 13.52% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue US$
Increase 39.1% 15.0% 30.9% 40.1% -24.9% 15.6% 21.2% 9.9% 3.8% -3.5% -44.3% -4.2% 1.28% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue 13.52% US$
5 year Running Average $3,935 $5,092 $6,669 $8,976 $10,174 $11,324 $12,806 $14,101 $14,690 $15,883 $15,234 $13,968 -10.08% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue -41.20% US$
Revenue per Share $8.19 $10.23 $13.89 $19.45 $14.60 $16.85 $20.42 $22.35 $23.20 $22.36 $11.32 $10.84 10.62% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average 174.29% US$
Increase 48.1% 25.0% 35.7% 40.0% -24.9% 15.4% 21.2% 9.5% 3.8% -3.6% -49.4% -4.2% 1.75% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average 9.07% US$
5 year Running Average $4.79 $5.98 $8.23 $11.46 $13.27 $15.00 $17.04 $18.73 $19.48 $21.04 $19.93 $18.02 0.58% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue per Share 5.97% US$
P/S (Price/Sales) Med -11.89% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue per Share -46.89% US$
P/S (Price/Sales) Close 2.18 2.39 1.16 1.73 1.97 1.63 1.50 1.23 0.92 1.09 1.40 11.65% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average 201.09% US$
Revenue Net of Royalities in $M US$ P/S Close 10 yr 1.45 5 yr 1.23 1.12% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average 5.73% US$
-$7,961 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9,037
-$15,368 $0 $0 $0 $0 $9,037
-$5,092 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13,968
-$12,806 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13,968
-$10.23 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.84
-$20.42 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $10.84
-$5.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $18.02
-$17.04 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $18.02
$15,606 <-12 mths 28.61%
Rev* CDN Pre 09 $16,591 $19,108 $21,211 $36,798 CDN$
Revenue* CDN $8,054 $9,276 $10,296 $17,863 $11,517 $12,641 $15,696 $16,842 $18,657 $19,642 $13,064 $12,134 $17,506 $17,951 $19,717 30.81% <-Total Growth 10 Revenue CDN$
Increase 34.2% 15.2% 11.0% 73.5% -35.5% 9.8% 24.2% 7.3% 10.8% 5.3% -33.5% -7.1% 44.3% 2.5% 9.8% 2.72% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue 30.81% CDN$
5 year Running Average $5,096 $6,258 $7,515 $10,298 $11,401 $12,319 $13,603 $14,912 $15,071 $16,696 $16,780 $16,068 $16,201 $16,059 $16,074 -5.02% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue -22.69% CDN$
Revenue per Share $9.52 $11.92 $13.72 $23.80 $15.33 $16.79 $20.85 $22.28 $24.68 $25.94 $15.68 $14.56 $14.25 $14.61 $16.05 9.89% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average 156.74% CDN$
Increase 42.91% 25.24% 15.10% 73.44% -35.60% 9.56% 24.17% 6.85% 10.75% 5.13% -39.57% -7.12% -2.16% 2.54% 9.84% 3.39% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average 18.12% CDN$
5 year Running Average $6.29 $7.32 $9.22 $13.13 $14.86 $16.32 $18.10 $19.81 $19.99 $22.11 $21.89 $20.63 $19.02 $17.01 $15.03 2.02% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Revenue per Share 22.12% CDN$
P/S (Price/Sales) Med 2.60 2.19 2.17 1.42 1.74 1.73 1.65 1.57 1.27 1.04 1.32 1.28 -6.93% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Revenue per Share -30.17% CDN$
P/S (Price/Sales) Close 2.68 2.18 2.39 1.16 1.64 1.98 1.59 1.49 1.23 0.92 1.12 1.39 0.90 0.88 0.80 10.92% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average 181.93% CDN$
*Revenue Net of Royalities CDN $M (ACE to end 2001) P/S Med 10 yr 1.49 5 yr 1.28 -39.59% Diff M/C 2.65% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average 13.96% CDN$
-$9,276 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $12,134
-$15,696 $0 $0 $0 $0 $12,134
-$6,258 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $16,068
-$13,603 $0 $0 $0 $0 $16,068
-$11.92 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $14.56
-$20.85 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $14.56
-$7.32 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $20.63
-$18.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $20.63
pre split 2005
EPS* US$ pre 09 $3.95 $6.89 $5.23 $7.91
EPS Basic US$ $1.92 $3.34 $2.54 $3.84 $1.04 $1.32 $1.92 $1.32 $0.83 $0.84 $0.54 -$0.48 -114.47% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Basic US$
pre split 2005
EPS* US$ pre 09 $3.85 $6.76 $5.18 $7.91
EPS Diluted* US$ $1.87 $3.28 $2.51 $3.84 $1.04 $1.32 $1.91 $1.31 $0.82 $0.84 $0.54 -$0.48 -114.75% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Diluted US$
Increase 54.6% 75.6% -23.4% 52.7% -73.0% 27.6% 44.2% -31.2% -37.8% 3.3% -35.9% -189.4% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings per Share -114.75% US$
5 year Running Average $1.06 $1.61 $1.87 $2.54 $2.51 $2.40 $2.13 $1.89 $1.28 $1.24 $1.09 $0.61 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings per Share -125.36% US$
10 year Running Average $1.32 $1.98 $2.45 $3.24 $3.21 $3.07 $2.97 $2.72 $2.62 $2.37 $1.99 $1.31 -9.29% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average -33.75% US$
*Fully diluted EPS -22.17% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average -55.88% US$
-$3.28 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.48
-$1.91 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.48
-$1.61 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.61
-$2.13 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.61
$0.35 <-12 mths 153.85%
$2.73 <-12 mths 520.00%
pre split 2005
EPS* CDN$ pre 09
EPS Basic CND$ $2.23 $3.90 $2.51 $4.70 $1.09 $1.32 $1.96 $1.32 $0.88 $0.98 $0.75 -$0.65 $0.77 -116.68% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Basic CDN$
pre stock exch 02
pre split 2005
EPS* CDN$ pre 09 $4.48 $7.88 $5.12 $9.68
EPS Diluted* CDN$ $2.17 $3.82 $2.48 $4.70 $1.09 $1.32 $1.95 $1.31 $0.87 $0.98 $0.75 -$0.65 $2.70 $0.24 $0.62 -117.00% <-Total Growth 10 EPS Diluted CDN$
Increase 49.25% 75.92% -35.02% 89.16% -76.81% 21.10% 47.73% -32.82% -33.59% 12.64% -23.47% -186.67% 515.38% -91.11% 158.33% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 Earnings per Share -117.00% CDN$ $2,782.00
Earnings Yield 8.5% 14.7% 7.6% 17.0% 4.3% 4.0% 5.9% 3.9% 2.9% 4.1% 4.3% -3.2% 21.0% 1.9% 4.8% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 Earnings per Share -133.33% CDN$ -$2,524.00
5 year Running Average $1.40 $2.00 $2.11 $2.93 $2.85 $2.68 $2.31 $2.07 $1.31 $1.29 $1.17 $0.65 $0.93 $0.80 $0.73 -10.59% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 yr Running Average -67.36% CDN$ $258.00
10 year Running Average $0.86 $1.23 $1.45 $1.92 $2.01 $2.04 $2.15 $2.09 $2.12 $2.07 $1.93 $1.48 $1.50 $1.06 $1.01 -22.35% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 yr Running Average -71.76% CDN$ $0.24
*Fully diluted EPS E/P 10 Yrs 4.19% 5Yrs 3.94%
-$3.82 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.65
-$1.95 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.65
-$2.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.65
-$2.31 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.65
Actual $0.78 $0.80 $0.87 $0.94 $0.95 $0.71 $0.15 -80.67% <-Total Growth 6 Actual
Special Dividends $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 <-Median-> 10 Special Dividends
pre split 2005
Div US$ pre 09 $0.30 $0.40 $0.80 $1.60 US$
Div US$ $0.15 $0.19 $0.39 $0.78 $0.76 $0.80 $0.86 $0.88 $0.91 $0.92 $0.62 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 -23.29% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends US$
Increase 50.00% 33.33% 100.00% 100.00% -1.92% 5.33% 7.38% 2.46% 3.09% 0.85% -32.93% -75.80% 5.12% 0.00% 0.00% -2.62% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Dividends US$
Dividends 5 Yr Running $0.10 $0.13 $0.18 $0.32 $0.45 $0.58 $0.72 $0.82 $0.84 $0.87 $0.84 $0.70 $0.55 $0.40 $0.25 450.70% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends 5 Yr Running US$
Yield H/L Price #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Yield H/L Price US$
Yield on High Price #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Yield on High Price US$
Yield on Low Price #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Yield on Low Price US$
Yield on Close Price 0.66% 0.87% 1.17% 3.44% 3.02% 2.41% 2.60% 2.63% 3.18% 4.45% 4.99% 0.98% 1.55% 1.55% 1.55% 2.83% <-Median-> 10 Yield on Close Price US$
Payout Ratio EPS 7.79% 5.92% 15.44% 20.23% 73.39% 60.61% 45.13% 67.18% 111.26% 108.65% 113.65% neg #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 67.18% <-Median-> 9 DPR EPS US$
DPR EPS 5 Yr Running 9.45% 7.84% 9.87% 12.60% 18.07% 24.37% 33.79% 43.34% 65.88% 70.45% 77.16% 114.53% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 38.57% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS 5 Yr Running US$
Payout Ratio CFPS 3.42% 3.90% 7.12% 13.56% 19.78% 23.21% 20.24% 19.45% 20.68% 22.86% 48.19% 19.36% 7.69% 9.35% #DIV/0! 20.01% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF US$
DPR CF 5 Yr Running 4.34% 4.26% 4.74% 7.00% 9.34% 12.46% 15.78% 18.71% 20.57% 21.17% 22.65% 23.17% 22.00% 20.42% #DIV/0! 17.25% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF 5 Yr Running US$
Payout Ratio CFPS WC 3.52% 6.72% 7.11% 13.16% 21.13% 24.93% 20.22% 18.26% 20.28% 23.17% 42.00% 11.71% 7.69% 9.35% #DIV/0! 20.25% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC US$
DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running 4.64% 5.12% 5.58% 7.96% 10.30% 13.87% 16.00% 18.72% 20.67% 21.07% 22.03% 21.69% 20.79% 19.17% #DIV/0! 17.36% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running US$
Median Values 5 Yr Med 5 Yr Cl #NUM! 3.18% Payout 109.96% 20.68% 20.28% -2.62% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends -23.29% US$
* Dividends per share 5 Yr Med and Cur. #NUM! Last Div Inc ---> $0.1600 $0.0500 -68.8% -29.60% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends -82.71% US$
-$0.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.15
-$0.86 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.15
Special Dividends $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 <-Median-> 10 Special Dividends CDN$
AEC Div
pre split 2005
Dividends CDN$* $0.17 $0.23 $0.38 $0.95 $0.80 $0.80 $0.88 $0.88 $0.97 $1.06 $0.85 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 -11.60% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends CDN$
Increase 44.80% 33.59% 69.60% 147.75% -15.85% 0.00% 10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 10.00% -19.95% -76.54% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Count 25 Years of data CDN$
Dividends 5 Yr Running $0.13 $0.16 $0.20 $0.37 $0.51 $0.63 $0.76 $0.86 $0.87 $0.92 $0.93 $0.79 $0.66 $0.50 $0.33 401.02% <-Total Growth 10 Dividends 5 Yr Running CDN$
Yield H/L Price 0.68% 0.87% 1.29% 2.81% 2.99% 2.76% 2.55% 2.52% 3.10% 3.95% 4.11% 1.08% 1.36% 2.78% <-Median-> 10 Yield H/L Price CDN$
Yield on High Price 0.50% 0.76% 1.12% 2.04% 2.52% 2.40% 2.19% 2.24% 2.87% 3.07% 3.33% 0.94% 0.98% 2.32% <-Median-> 10 Yield on High Price CDN$
Yield on Low Price 1.07% 1.01% 1.52% 4.50% 3.68% 3.24% 3.06% 2.88% 3.37% 5.52% 5.35% 1.26% 2.22% 3.31% <-Median-> 10 Yield on Low Price CDN$
Yield on Close Price 0.66% 0.87% 1.17% 3.44% 3.17% 2.40% 2.65% 2.64% 3.18% 4.44% 4.87% 0.99% 1.56% 1.56% 1.56% 2.91% <-Median-> 10 Yield on Close Price CDN$
Payout Ratio EPS 7.79% 5.92% 15.44% 20.23% 73.39% 60.61% 45.13% 67.18% 111.26% 108.65% 113.65% -30.77% 7.4% 83.3% 32.3% 63.89% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS CDN$
DPR EPS 5 Yr Running 9.51% 7.92% 9.69% 12.62% 17.73% 23.55% 33.04% 41.57% 66.18% 71.43% 79.27% 121.63% 70.65% 62.62% 45.15% 37.30% <-Median-> 10 DPR EPS 5 Yr Running CDN$
Payout Ratio CFPS 3.42% 3.90% 7.12% 13.56% 19.78% 23.21% 20.24% 19.45% 20.68% 22.86% 48.19% 19.36% 7.7% 9.3% 7.7% 20.01% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF CDN$
DPR CF 5 Yr Running 4.48% 4.41% 4.63% 7.07% 9.30% 12.30% 15.74% 18.44% 20.56% 21.21% 23.25% 23.79% 22.29% 20.63% 16.31% 17.09% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF 5 Yr Running CDN$
Payout Ratio CFPS WC 3.52% 6.72% 7.11% 13.16% 21.13% 24.93% 20.22% 18.26% 20.28% 23.17% 42.00% 11.71% 7.69% 9.35% 7.72% 20.25% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC CDN$
DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running 4.76% 5.20% 5.48% 8.07% 10.29% 13.75% 15.92% 18.43% 20.67% 21.12% 22.58% 22.12% 20.92% 19.26% 14.93% 17.17% <-Median-> 10 DPR CF WC 5 Yr Running CDN$
Median Values 5 Yr Med 5 Yr Cl 3.10% 3.18% Payout 108.65% 20.68% 20.28% -1.23% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Dividends -11.60% CDN$
* Dividends per share 5 Yr Med and Cur. -49.81% Last Div Inc ---> $0.1600 $0.0500 -68.8% -25.65% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Dividends -77.27% CDN$
4.80% <-IRR #YR-> 15 Dividends 102.15% CDN$
5.70% <-IRR #YR-> 20 Dividends 203.23% CDN$
Historical Dividends Historical High Div 4.84% Low Div 0.64% Ave Div 2.74% Med Div 1.45% Close Div 1.44% Historical Dividends CDN$
High/Ave/Median Values Curr diff Exp. -67.87% 143.00% Exp. -43.24% Cheap 7.26% Cheap 7.89% High/Ave/Median CDN$
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 2.50% earning in 5 Years at IRR of 10.00% Div Inc. 61.05% Future Dividend Yield CDN$
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 4.03% earning in 10 Years at IRR of 10.0% Div Inc. 159.37% Future Dividend Yield CDN$
Future Dividend Yield Div Yd 6.50% earning in 15 Years at IRR of 10.0% Div Inc. 317.72% Future Dividend Yield CDN$
H/LYield held 5 yrs 1.87% 2.15% 3.63% 8.03% 5.39% 3.23% 3.37% 2.95% 2.86% 3.98% 2.94% 0.58% 0.57% 0.64% 0.74% 3.30% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
H/LYield held 10 yrs 5.20% 4.99% 7.57% 17.81% 12.18% 8.85% 8.35% 8.33% 8.17% 7.18% 3.44% 0.76% 0.67% 0.59% 0.75% 8.25% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
H/LYield held 15 yrs 17.40% 29.47% 24.11% 24.56% 19.41% 17.36% 18.13% 16.22% 9.42% 1.90% 1.89% 1.69% 1.35% 17.77% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
H/LYield held 20 yrs 39.90% 30.01% 32.09% 26.17% 4.41% 3.94% 3.75% 3.05% 30.01% <-Median-> 5 Paid Median Price CDN$
H/LYield held 25 yrs 9.07% 6.20% 6.03% #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Paid Median Price CDN$
Cost covered if held 5 years 7.34% 7.51% 9.67% 15.59% 17.06% 12.76% 14.59% 14.45% 12.79% 17.17% 16.03% 11.49% 9.41% 8.06% 6.12% 14.52% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
Cost covered if held 10 years 30.51% 25.45% 29.03% 44.15% 47.07% 42.29% 43.70% 50.48% 52.13% 48.03% 31.50% 29.75% 25.46% 20.22% 23.35% 43.92% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
Cost covered if held 15 years 81.32% 83.27% 103.08% 127.54% 109.57% 114.05% 125.22% 117.01% 93.65% 81.31% 81.57% 73.38% 59.17% 106.33% <-Median-> 10 Paid Median Price CDN$
Cost covered if held 20 years 276.78% 217.43% 241.48% 270.15% 197.02% 178.84% 172.37% 142.17% 241.48% <-Median-> 5 Paid Median Price CDN$
Cost covered if held 25 years 425.74% 295.46% 291.27% #NUM! <-Median-> 0 Paid Median Price CDN$
Graham No. last 3 EPS $17.88 $20.09 $27.20 $34.02 $32.49 $28.75 $25.81 $20.60 $21.26 $20.41 $18.77 $16.47 $11.32 $18.22 $16.48 -18.04% <-Total Growth 10 Graham Price CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Med 1.39 1.30 1.10 0.99 0.82 1.01 1.34 1.69 1.47 1.32 1.11 1.13 1.30 0.00 0.00 1.12 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio High 1.89 1.48 1.26 1.37 0.98 1.16 1.56 1.91 1.59 1.70 1.36 1.29 1.81 0.00 0.00 1.37 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Low 0.89 1.12 0.93 0.62 0.67 0.86 1.11 1.48 1.35 0.94 0.85 0.97 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.94 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Close 1.43 1.30 1.20 0.81 0.78 1.16 1.29 1.62 1.43 1.17 0.93 1.23 1.14 0.71 0.78 1.19 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Prem/Disc Close 33.41% 18.02% 20.45% -14.52% -41.18% 22.80% 31.54% 64.91% 56.97% 20.65% -8.04% 13.18% 4.97% -58.04% -24.38% 20.55% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price CDN$
Graham No. $22.86 $33.05 $27.20 $43.86 $17.71 $19.89 $23.42 $19.55 $16.05 $17.22 $15.84 $29.07 $31.00 $9.24 $14.85 -12.06% <-Total Growth 10 Graham Price CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Med 1.08 0.79 1.10 0.77 1.51 1.46 1.47 1.79 1.95 1.57 1.31 0.64 0.48 1.47 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio High 1.48 0.90 1.26 1.06 1.79 1.67 1.72 2.01 2.11 2.01 1.62 0.73 0.66 1.70 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Low 0.69 0.68 0.93 0.48 1.23 1.24 1.23 1.56 1.79 1.12 1.01 0.55 0.29 1.17 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Price/GP Ratio Close 1.12 0.79 1.20 0.63 1.42 1.67 1.42 1.70 1.89 1.39 1.10 0.70 0.41 1.39 0.87 1.40 <-Median-> 10 Price/GP Ratio CDN$
Prem/Disc Close 11.62% -21.20% 20.45% -36.96% 42.29% 67.35% 41.79% 70.24% 89.44% 39.17% 10.47% -30.16% -58.51% 39.16% -13.42% 40.48% <-Median-> 10 Graham Price CDN$
To 3rd Q
AEC to 2001
pre split 2005
Price Close CDN$ $25.51 $26.05 $32.77 $27.65 $25.20 $33.28 $33.20 $33.29 $30.40 $23.97 $17.50 $20.30 $12.86 $12.86 $12.86 -22.07% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price CDN$ $12.86
Increase 53.7% 2.1% 25.8% -15.6% -8.9% 32.1% -0.2% 0.3% -8.7% -21.2% -27.0% 16.0% -36.7% 0.0% 0.0% -2.46% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price -22.07% CDN$ -36.7%
P/E 11.74 6.81 13.19 5.88 23.12 25.21 17.03 25.41 34.94 24.46 23.33 -31.23 4.76 53.58 20.74 -9.37% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price -38.86% CDN$ 36.74
Trailing P/E 17.52 11.98 8.57 11.13 5.36 30.53 25.15 17.07 23.21 27.55 17.86 27.07 -19.78 4.76 53.58 0.86% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Dividend CDN$ -19.78
Median 10, 5 Yrs D. per yr 3.33% 2.84% % Tot Ret 384.72% 0.00% Price Inc -8.68% P/E: 23.23 24.46 -6.53% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Dividend CDN$
Price H/L Median CDN $24.78 $26.15 $29.84 $33.85 $26.75 $28.99 $34.50 $34.91 $31.24 $26.99 $20.76 $18.59 $14.74 -28.90% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price CDN$
Increase 67.1% 5.5% 14.1% 13.4% -21.0% 8.4% 19.0% 1.2% -10.5% -13.6% -23.1% -10.4% -20.7% -3.35% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price -28.90% CDN$
P/E 11.40 6.84 12.01 7.20 24.54 21.96 17.69 26.65 35.91 27.54 27.67 -28.60 5.46 -11.63% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price -46.11% CDN$
Trailing P/E 17.01 12.03 7.80 13.62 5.69 26.59 26.13 17.90 23.85 31.02 21.18 24.79 -22.67 0.10% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Dividend CDN$
P/E on Run. 5 yr Ave 17.74 13.09 14.15 11.56 9.37 10.80 14.94 16.83 23.88 20.98 17.71 28.51 15.84 -8.77% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Dividend CDN$
P/E on Run. 10 yr Ave 28.71 21.18 20.52 17.62 13.33 14.21 16.02 16.69 14.75 13.04 10.77 12.56 9.81 17.47 P/E Ratio Historical Median CDN$
Median 10, 5 Yrs D. per yr 3.45% 2.86% % Tot Ret 3540.73% 0.00% Price Inc -10.51% P/E: 23.25 27.54 Count 25 Years of data
High Months Sep Aug/Dec Jun May May Dec Apr/Jul Feb Jan Aug Feb Dec Jan
AEC
pre split 2005
Price High CDN$ $33.73 $29.81 $34.40 $46.58 $31.76 $33.28 $40.21 $39.31 $33.78 $34.68 $25.59 $21.26 $20.47 -28.67% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price CDN$
Increase 99.5% -11.6% 15.4% 35.4% -31.8% 4.8% 20.8% -2.2% -14.1% 2.7% -26.2% -16.9% -3.7% -3.32% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price -28.67% CDN$
P/E 15.5 7.8 13.8 9.9 29.1 25.2 20.6 30.0 38.8 35.4 34.1 -32.7 7.6 -11.97% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price -47.13% CDN$
Trailing P/E 23.2 13.7 9.0 18.7 6.8 30.5 30.5 20.2 25.8 39.9 26.1 28.3 -31.5 20.17 P/E Ratio Historical Median CDN$
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc -14.07% P/E: 27.17 34.12 34.97 P/E Ratio Historical High CDN$
-$29.81 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $21.26
-$40.21 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $21.26
Low Months Jan Feb Jan Oct Feb Jan Nov Aug Apr Dec Aug Aug Jun
AEC
pre split 2005
Price Low pre 09 $32.60 $46.33 $52.08 $43.50 $44.78
Price Low CDN$ $15.83 $22.49 $25.28 $21.12 $21.74 $24.69 $28.78 $30.51 $28.70 $19.29 $15.92 $15.92 $9.00 -29.21% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price CDN$
Increase 24.1% 42.1% 12.4% -16.5% 2.9% 13.6% 16.6% 6.0% -5.9% -32.8% -17.5% 0.0% -43.5% -3.40% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price -29.21% CDN$
P/E 7.3 5.9 10.2 4.5 19.9 18.7 14.8 23.3 33.0 19.7 21.2 -24.5 3.3 -11.17% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price -44.68% CDN$
Trailing P/E 10.9 10.3 6.6 8.5 4.6 22.7 21.8 15.6 21.9 22.2 16.2 21.2 -13.8 14.76 P/E Ratio Historical Median CDN$
Median 10, 5 Yrs Price Inc -5.93% P/E: 19.19 21.23 6.51 P/E Ratio Historical Low CDN$
-$22.49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $15.92
-$28.78 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $15.92
Price Close US$ $21.94 $22.36 $33.16 $22.59 $25.20 $33.24 $33.20 $33.54 $28.65 $20.62 $12.34 $15.13 $10.09 $10.09 $10.09 -32.32% <-Total Growth 10 Stock Price US$
Increase 1.9% 48.3% -31.9% 11.6% 31.9% -0.1% 1.0% -14.6% -28.0% -40.2% 22.6% -33.3% 0.0% 0.0% -3.83% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Stock Price -32.32% US$
P/E 11.74 6.81 13.19 5.88 24.28 25.11 17.39 25.52 35.03 24.41 22.78 -31.25 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -14.54% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Stock Price -54.43% US$
Trailing P/E 18.15 11.96 10.11 8.98 6.56 32.02 25.08 17.57 21.80 25.21 14.61 27.93 -20.84 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.08% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Price & Dividend US$
Median 10, 5 Yrs D. per yr 3.74% 2.72% % Tot Ret 0.00% 0.00% Price Inc -14.58% P/E: 23.53 24.41 -11.83% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Price & Dividend US$
Long Term Debt $5,458 $6,525 $6,332 $12,904 Debt CDN$
Change 19.55% -2.96% 103.79% 8.30% <-Median-> 2 Change CDN$
Ratio to Market Cap 0.30 0.45 0.37 0.82 0.37 <-Median-> 3 % of Market C. CDN$
Goodwill & Intangibles $0 $242 $242 $242 $2,339 Intangibles Goodwill CDN$
Change 0.00% 0.00% 866.53% 0.00% <-Median-> 2 Change CDN$
Ratio to Market Cap 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.15 0.01 <-Median-> 4 % of Market C. CDN$
Market Cap Pre 09 $44,461 $41,742 $50,639 $42,743 Full company
Market Cap $21,583 $20,263 $24,582 $20,749 $18,933 $25,049 $24,989 $25,162 $22,984 $18,148 $14,583 $16,916 $15,802 $15,802 $15,802 -16.52% <-Total Growth 10 Market Cap CDN$
Diluted # of Shares in Million 754.0 757.7 758.5 757.5 757.6 818.7 866.3 1,059.9 14.89% <-Total Growth 6 Diluted
Change 0.49% 0.11% -0.13% 0.01% 8.06% 5.81% 22.35% 0.30% <-Median-> 6 Change
Basic # of Shares in Millions 751.0 751.9 754.0 755.6 755.9 756.9 818.7 866.3 1,059.9 15.35% <-Total Growth 7 Average
Change 0.12% 0.28% 0.21% 0.04% 0.13% 8.16% 5.81% 22.35% 0.21% <-Median-> 7 Change
Difference 0.0% 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% -3.8% 15.9% 0.03% <-Median-> 8 Difference
$2,323 <-12 mths 169.80%
Reason
pre-split 2005
# of Share in Millions 845.9 777.9 750.2 750.4 751.3 752.7 752.7 755.8 756.0 757.1 833.3 833.3 1,228.8 1,228.8 1,228.8 0.69% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Shares 7.12%
Change -6.07% -8.04% -3.56% 0.03% 0.12% 0.18% 0.00% 0.42% 0.03% 0.14% 10.06% 0.00% 47.46% 0.00% 0.00% 2.06% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Shares 10.71%
CF fr Op $M US$ pre 09 $7,430.0 $7,973.0 $8,429.0 $8,855.0 US$
CF fr Op $M US$ $3,606.8 $3,870.4 $4,091.7 $4,298.5 $2,894.0 $2,601.8 $3,205 $3,431 $3,327 $3,039 $1,064 $641 $2,501 $2,059 -83.43% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow US$
Increase 61.84% 7.31% 5.72% 5.05% -32.68% -10.10% 23.17% 7.06% -3.02% -8.66% -64.98% -39.76% 290.06% -17.69% SO, S. Issue Buy Back US$
5 year Running Average $1,911 $2,516 $3,178 $3,619 $3,752 $3,551 $3,418 $3,286 $3,092 $3,121 $2,813 $2,301 $2,115 $1,861 -8.57% <-Total Growth 10 CF 5 Yr Running US$
CFPS $4.26 $4.98 $5.45 $5.73 $3.85 $3.46 $4.26 $4.54 $4.40 $4.01 $1.28 $0.77 $2.04 $1.68 -84.53% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow per Share US$
Increase 72.30% 16.69% 9.62% 5.03% -32.76% -10.26% 23.17% 6.61% -3.04% -8.78% -68.18% -39.76% 164.52% -17.69% -16.45% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow -8.57% US$
5 year Running Average $2.30 $2.96 $3.89 $4.58 $4.85 $4.69 $4.55 $4.37 $4.10 $4.13 $3.70 $3.00 $2.50 $1.95 -27.51% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow -32.69% US$
P/CF on Med Price -17.03% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow per Share 1.34% US$
P/CF on Closing Price 5.15 4.49 6.08 3.94 6.54 9.62 7.80 7.39 6.51 5.14 9.66 19.66 4.96 6.02 -28.98% <-IRR #YR-> 2 Cash Flow per Share -34.06% US$
-28.84% Diff M/C 0.13% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS 5 yr Running 337.58% US$
Non-Cash pre 09 US$ -$216.0 -$3,343.0 $8.0 $269.0 -$184.7 $418.6 $0.0 $0.0 -7.99% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running 152.14% US$
Excl.Working Capital CF -$104.9 -$1,622.8 $3.9 $130.6 -$184.7 -$179.5 $2.9 $223.7 $65.8 -$40.5 $156.7 $418.6 $0.0 $0.0
CF fr Op $M WC $3,501.9 $2,247.6 $4,095.6 $4,429.1 $2,709.2 $2,422.3 $3,207.6 $3,654.6 $3,393.2 $2,998.9 $1,221.2 $1,059.8 $2,501.3 $2,058.7 15.94% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow less WC US$
Increase 125.30% -35.82% 82.22% 8.14% -38.83% -10.59% 32.42% 13.94% -7.15% -11.62% -59.28% -13.21% 136.01% -17.69% -7.24% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow less WC 15.94% US$
5 year Running Average $1,811 $2,127 $2,706 $3,166 $3,397 $3,181 $3,373 $3,285 $3,077 $3,135 $2,895 $2,466 $2,235 $1,968 -19.87% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow less WC -26.90% US$
CFPS Excl. WC US$ $4.14 $2.89 $5.46 $5.90 $3.61 $3.22 $4.26 $4.84 $4.49 $3.96 $1.47 $1.27 $2.04 $1.68 1.49% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CF less WC 5 Yr Run 56.26% US$
Increase 139.87% -30.21% 88.95% 8.11% -38.91% -10.76% 32.42% 13.46% -7.18% -11.74% -63.00% -13.21% 60.05% -17.69% -6.07% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CF less WC 5 Yr Run -140.76% US$
5 year Running Average $2.15 $2.46 $3.31 $4.02 $4.40 $4.22 $4.49 $4.36 $4.08 $4.15 $3.80 $3.20 $2.64 $2.08 -7.88% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS - Less WC 30.05% US$
P/CF on Med Price -21.48% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS - Less WC -28.63% US$
P/CF on Closing Price 5.30 7.74 6.07 3.83 6.99 10.33 7.79 6.94 6.38 5.21 8.42 11.90 3.82 6.02 2.66% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS 5 yr Running 53.75% US$
CF/-WC P/CF Med 10 yr 6.97 5 yr 7.39 P/CF Med 10 yr 6.96 5 yr 6.94 -45.20% Diff M/C -6.52% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running 52.70% US$
CF fr Op $M CDN$ pre 09
CF fr Op $M CDN$ $4,194.7 $4,509.8 $4,043.1 $5,261.4 $3,039.0 $2,594.0 $3,273 $3,420 $3,539 $3,526 $1,474 $861 $3,195 $2,630 $3,183 -80.91% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow CDN$
Increase 56.22% 7.51% -10.35% 30.13% -42.24% -14.64% 26.18% 4.49% 3.48% -0.37% -58.20% -41.59% 271.06% -17.69% 21.03% SO, S. Issue Buy Back CDN$
5 year Running Average $2,434 $3,066 $3,627 $4,139 $4,210 $3,889 $3,642 $3,517 $3,173 $3,270 $3,046 $2,564 $2,519 $2,337 $2,268 -16.38% <-Total Growth 10 CF 5 Yr Running CDN$
CFPS $4.96 $5.80 $5.39 $7.01 $4.04 $3.45 $4.35 $4.52 $4.68 $4.66 $1.77 $1.03 $2.60 $2.14 $2.59 -82.18% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow per Share CDN$
Increase 66.33% 16.91% -7.04% 30.10% -42.31% -14.80% 26.18% 4.05% 3.45% -0.51% -62.02% -41.59% 151.63% -17.69% 21.03% -15.26% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow -80.91% CDN$
5 year Running Average $2.96 $3.59 $4.41 $5.23 $5.44 $5.14 $4.85 $4.68 $4.21 $4.33 $4.00 $3.33 $2.95 $2.44 $2.03 -23.44% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow -73.69% CDN$
P/CF on Med Price 5.00 4.51 5.54 4.83 6.61 8.41 7.93 7.72 6.67 5.79 11.73 17.99 5.67 -15.84% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow per Share -82.18% CDN$
P/CF on Closing Price 5.15 4.49 6.08 3.94 6.23 9.66 7.63 7.36 6.49 5.15 9.89 19.65 4.95 6.01 4.97 -24.98% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow per Share -76.24% CDN$
-31.25% Diff M/C -0.75% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running -7.24% CDN$
Excl.Working Capital CF pre 09 -$251.2 -$3,895.3 $7.9 $329.3
Excl.Working Capital CF -$121.9 -$1,890.9 $3.8 $159.8 -$194.0 -$179.0 $3.0 $223.0 $70.0 -$47.0 $217.0 $562.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 -7.22% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running -31.25% CDN$
CF fr Op $M WC $4,072.8 $2,618.9 $4,046.9 $5,421.3 $2,845.0 $2,415.0 $3,276.0 $3,643 $3,609 $3,479 $1,691 $1,423 $3,195 $2,630 $3,183 -45.66% <-Total Growth 10 Cash Flow less WC CDN$
Increase 117.48% -35.70% 54.53% 33.96% -47.52% -15.11% 35.65% 11.20% -0.93% -3.60% -51.39% -15.85% 124.52% -17.69% 21.03% -5.92% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Cash Flow less WC 129.72% CDN$
5 year Running Average $2,332 $2,642 $3,073 $3,606 $3,801 $3,469 $3,601 $3,520 $3,158 $3,284 $3,140 $2,769 $2,679 $2,483 $2,424 -15.36% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Cash Flow less WC 18633.33% CDN$
CFPS Excl. WC $4.81 $3.37 $5.39 $7.22 $3.79 $3.21 $4.35 $4.82 $4.77 $4.60 $2.03 $1.71 $2.60 $2.14 $2.59 0.47% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CF less WC 5 Yr Run 4.80% CDN$
Increase 131.54% -30.08% 60.23% 33.93% -47.58% -15.27% 35.65% 10.74% -0.96% -3.74% -55.84% -15.85% 52.25% -17.69% 21.03% -5.12% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CF less WC 5 Yr Run -23.10% CDN$
5 year Running Average $2.79 $3.05 $3.73 $4.58 $4.92 $4.60 $4.79 $4.68 $4.19 $4.35 $4.11 $3.59 $3.14 $2.61 $2.21 -6.56% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS - Less WC -49.28% CDN$
P/CF on Med Price 5.15 7.77 5.53 4.69 7.06 9.03 7.93 7.24 6.54 5.87 10.23 10.89 5.67 -17.07% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS - Less WC -60.77% CDN$
P/CF on Closing Price 5.30 7.74 6.07 3.83 6.65 10.37 7.63 6.91 6.37 5.22 8.62 11.89 4.95 6.01 4.97 1.65% <-IRR #YR-> 10 CFPS 5 yr Running 17.73% CDN$
*Operational Cash Flow per share CF/-WC P/CF Med 10 yr 7.19 5 yr 7.72 P/CF Med 10 yr 7.15 5 yr 7.24 -30.85% Diff M/C -5.64% <-IRR #YR-> 5 CFPS 5 yr Running -25.21% CDN$
-777.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 833.3 Shares
-752.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 833.3 Shares
-$3,870 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $641 Cash Flow US$
-$3,205 $0 $0 $0 $0 $641 Cash Flow US$
-$4.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.77 Cash Flow per Share US$
-$4.26 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.77 Cash Flow per Share US$
-$2.96 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.00 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$4.55 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.00 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$2,248 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,060 Cash Flow less WC US$
-$3,208 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,060 Cash Flow less WC US$
-$2,127 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,466 CF less WC 5 Yr Run US$
-$3,373 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,466 CF less WC 5 Yr Run US$
-$2.89 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.27 CFPS - Less WC US$
-$4.26 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.27 CFPS - Less WC US$
-$2.46 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.20 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$4.49 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.20 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$7.74 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $11.90 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$7.79 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $11.90 CFPS 5 yr Running US$
-$4,510 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $861 Cash Flow CDN$
-$3,273 $0 $0 $0 $0 $861 Cash Flow CDN$
-$5.80 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.03 Cash Flow per Share CDN$
OPM 52.08% 48.62% 39.27% 29.45% 26.39% 20.52% 20.85% 20.31% 18.97% 17.95% 11.28% 7.10% -85.41% <-Total Growth 10 OPM CDN$
Increase 16.38% -6.65% -19.24% -24.99% -10.41% -22.23% 1.62% -2.62% -6.59% -5.36% -37.15% -37.11% Should increase or be stable. CDN$
Diff from Median 155.1% 138.2% 92.4% 44.3% 29.3% 0.5% 2.2% -0.5% -7.1% -12.1% -44.7% -65.2% 0.00 <-Median-> 10 OPM CDN$
*Operational Profit Margin (CF/Revenue) Ratio OPM 10 Yrs 20.41% 5 Yrs 17.95% should be zero, it is a check on calculations CDN$
Current Assets CDN$ $2,034.7 $2,094 $2,132 $3,329 $2,390 $2,775 $3,911 $4,579 $5,610 $4,195 $6,473 $6,822 $5,209 Liquidity ratio of 1.5 and up, best CDN$
Current Liabilities CDN$ $2,750.0 $2,088 $3,036 $2,314 $1,921 $2,485 $3,388 $3,270 $3,779 $2,957 $1,858 $2,671 $3,706 1.41 <-Median-> 10 Ratio CDN$
Liquidity 0.74 1.00 0.70 1.44 1.24 1.12 1.15 1.40 1.48 1.42 3.48 2.55 1.41 1.48 <-Median-> 5 Ratio CDN$
Liq. with CF aft div 2.21 3.08 1.94 3.40 2.51 1.92 1.92 2.24 2.23 2.34 3.89 2.81 2.20 2.34 <-Median-> 5 Ratio CDN$
Liq. CF re Inv+Div 0.76 1.07 0.53 0.68 1.21 1.92 1.10 1.11 1.59 1.54 3.89 2.00 2.20 1.59 <-Median-> 5 Ratio CDN$
Assets CDN$ $19,279 $19,857 $22,532 $28,073 $21,509 $22,095 $22,194 $24,216 $25,224 $24,695 $25,791 $25,258 $42,572 Debt Ratio of 1.5 and up, best Assets
Liabilities CDN$ $10,242 $9,978 $12,601 $14,422 $11,901 $12,073 $12,788 $14,410 $15,278 $14,509 $13,400 $13,668 $23,139 1.80 <-Median-> 10 Liabilities CDN$
Asset/Liability 1.88 1.99 1.79 1.95 1.81 1.83 1.74 1.68 1.65 1.70 1.92 1.85 1.84 1.70 <-Median-> 5 Ratio CDN$
Book Value CDN$ $9,037 $9,879 $9,931 $13,651 $9,608 $10,022 $9,406 $9,806 $9,946 $10,186 $12,391 $11,590 $19,433 $19,433 $19,433 17.32% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value CDN$
BV per share $10.68 $12.70 $13.24 $18.19 $12.79 $13.32 $12.50 $12.97 $13.16 $13.45 $14.87 $13.91 $15.81 $15.81 $15.81 9.52% <-Total Growth 10 Book Value per Share CDN$
Change 14.98% 18.88% 4.23% 37.42% -29.70% 4.12% -6.15% 3.82% 1.40% 2.27% 10.53% -6.46% 13.70% 0.00% 0.00% -61.90% P/B Ratio Current/10 Year Median CDN$
P/B Ratio (Median) 2.32 2.06 2.25 1.86 2.09 2.18 2.76 2.69 2.37 2.01 1.40 1.34 0.93 1.86 P/B Ratio Historical Median CDN$
P/B Ratio (Close) 2.39 2.05 2.48 1.52 1.97 2.50 2.66 2.57 2.31 1.78 1.18 1.46 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.91% <-IRR #YR-> 10 Book Value per Share CDN$
Change 33.67% -14.12% 20.68% -38.59% 29.64% 26.84% 6.29% -3.41% -9.94% -22.90% -33.94% 24.02% -44.29% 0.00% 0.00% 2.16% <-IRR #YR-> 5 Book Value per Share CDN$
Leverage (A/BK) 2.13 2.01 2.27 2.06 2.24 2.20 2.36 2.47 2.54 2.42 2.08 2.18 2.19 0.00 0.00 2.25 <-Median-> 10 A/BV CDN$
Debt/Equity Ratio 1.13 1.01 1.27 1.06 1.24 1.20 1.36 1.47 1.54 1.42 1.08 1.18 1.19 0.00 0.00 1.25 <-Median-> 10 Debt/Eq Ratio CDN$
Sharerholders Equity (Assets less liabilities) P/BV 10 yr Med 2.13 5 yr Med 2.01 -61.90% Diff M/C 2.20 Historical Leverage (A/BK) CDN$
$2,688 <-12 mths 510.38%
Comprehensive Income CDN$ $2,526 $580 $980 $1,526 $969 $803 $941 $1,231 -$655 -125.93% <-Total Growth 8 Comprehensive Income CDN$
Increase -77.04% 68.97% 55.71% -36.50% -17.13% 17.19% 30.82% -153.21% -17.13% <-Median-> 5 Comprehensive Income CDN$
5 Yr Running Average $1,316 $972 $1,044 $1,094 $658 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 8 Comprehensive Income -125.93% CDN$
ROE 18.5% 6.0% 9.8% 16.2% 9.9% 8.1% 9.2% 9.9% -5.7% #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 Comprehensive Income -142.92% CDN$
5Yr Median 9.8% 13.0% 9.9% 9.8% 9.8% 9.9% 9.2% -15.92% <-IRR #YR-> 4 5 Yr Running Average -50.02% CDN$
% Difference from NI -28.5% -29.1% -1.3% 3.2% -2.4% 21.3% 26.5% 99.2% 20.2% -15.92% <-IRR #YR-> 4 5 Yr Running Average -50.02% CDN$
Median Values Diff 5, 10 yr 3.2% 21.3% 9.2% <-Median-> 5 Return on Equity CDN$
Current Liability Coverage Ratio 1.48 1.25 1.33 2.34 1.48 0.97 0.97 1.11 0.96 1.18 0.91 0.53 0.86 CFO / Current Liabilities CDN$
5 year Median 1.34 1.25 1.33 1.33 1.48 1.33 1.33 1.11 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.96 <-Median-> 5 Current Liability Cov Ratio CDN$
Asset Efficiency Ratio 21.13% 13.19% 17.96% 19.31% 13.23% 10.93% 14.76% 15.04% 14.31% 14.09% 6.56% 5.63% 7.50% CFO / Total Assets CDN$
5 year Median 18.22% 13.19% 17.96% 17.96% 17.96% 13.23% 14.76% 14.76% 14.31% 14.31% 14.31% 14.09% 7.50% 14.1% <-Median-> 5 Return on Assets CDN$
Return on Assets ROA 8.6% 13.8% 8.5% 10.3% 3.6% 4.5% 6.5% 4.1% 2.5% 2.6% 1.7% -1.6% 0.0% Net Income/Assets Return on Assets CDN$
5Yr Median 7.6% 7.6% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.5% 6.5% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 2.5% <-Median-> 5 Asset Efficiency Ratio CDN$
Return on Equity ROE 21.4% 32.4% 19.1% 25.9% 8.5% 9.9% 15.7% 10.1% 6.7% 7.3% 5.0% -4.7% 0.2% Net Inc/ Shareholders' equity Return on Equity CDN$
5Yr Median 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 21.4% 21.4% 19.1% 15.7% 10.1% 9.9% 9.9% 7.3% 6.7% 5.0% 6.7% <-Median-> 5 Return on Equity CDN$
$2,873 <-12 mths 627.16%
Net Income CDN$ $1,934 $3,197 $1,899 $3,532 $818 $993 $1,478 $993 $662 $744 $618 -$545 $35 $512 -117.05% <-Total Growth 10 Net Income CDN$
Increase 15.27% 65.29% -40.60% 85.98% -76.84% 21.39% 48.84% -32.81% -33.33% 12.39% -16.94% -188.19% 106.33% 1384.06% EPS/CF Ratio should not be higher than 1.00 CDN$
5 Yr Running Average $1,051 $1,566 $1,885 $2,448 $2,276 $2,088 $1,744 $1,563 $989 $974 $899 $494 $303 $273 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 10 Net Income -117.05% CDN$
Operating Cash Flow $4,195 $4,510 $4,043 $5,261 $3,039 $2,594 $3,273 $3,420 $3,539 $3,526 $1,474 $861 #NUM! <-IRR #YR-> 5 Net Income -136.87% CDN$
Investment Cash Flow -5,257 -3,941 -8,078 -9,245 -2,063 798 -2,530 -3,336 -1,519 -1,519 888 -1,079 -10.89% <-IRR #YR-> 10 5 Yr Running Average -68.43% CDN$
Total Accruals $2,996 $2,628 $5,934 $7,515 -$158 -$2,399 $735 $909 -$1,358 -$1,263 -$1,744 -$327 -22.28% <-IRR #YR-> 5 5 Yr Running Average -71.65% CDN$
Total Assets $19,279 $19,857 $22,532 $28,073 $21,509 $22,095 $22,194 $24,216 $25,224 $24,695 $25,791 $25,258 Balance Sheet Assets CDN$
Accruals Ratio 15.54% 13.23% 26.33% 26.77% -0.73% -10.86% 3.31% 3.75% -5.38% -5.11% -6.76% -1.29% -5.11% <-Median-> 5 Ratio CDN$
EPS/CF Ratio 0.45 1.14 0.46 0.65 0.29 0.41 0.45 0.27 0.18 0.21 0.37 -0.38 0.33 <-Median-> 10 EPS/CF Ratio CDN$
Chge In Close CDN$ 53.68% 2.09% 25.79% -15.61% -8.86% 32.06% -0.24% 0.27% -8.68% -21.15% -26.99% 16.00% -36.65% 0.00% 0.00% Count 22 Years of data CDN$
Accruals Ratio Is? down up up up up Count 13 59.09% CDN$
Predictive? Yes % right Count 3 23.08% CDN$
Financial Cash Flow CDN$ -$1,917 -$2,429 -$57 -$855 -$799 -$631 -$558 $592 -$726 -$797 $894 -$218 C F Statement Financial Cash Flow CDN$
Total Accruals $4,914 $5,057 $5,991 $8,370 $641 -$1,768 $1,293 $317 -$632 -$466 -$2,638 -$109 Accruals CDN$
Accruals Ratio 25.49% 25.47% 26.59% 29.82% 2.98% -8.00% 5.83% 1.31% -2.51% -1.89% -10.23% -0.43% Ratio CDN$
Count 22 Years of data
Accruals Ratio Is? down down down down down up down up Count 8 36.36% CDN$
Predictive? Yes Yes Yes % right Count 3 37.50% CDN$
Cash $300 $495 $1,160 $2,452 $883 $4,105 $3,720 $632 Cash CDN$
Cash Per Share $0.40 $0.66 $1.53 $3.24 $1.17 $4.93 $4.46 $0.51 $3.24 <-Median-> 5 Cash per Share CDN$
Percentage of Stock Price 1.20% 1.98% 4.61% 10.67% 4.87% 28.15% 21.99% 4.00% 10.67% <-Median-> 5 % of Stock Price CDN$
Notes
November 16, 2017. Last estimates were for 2016, 2017 and 2018 of $11958M, $14323M and $14.396M for Revenue, -$0.72, $0.04 and $0.59 for EPS, $1.51, $2.14 and $2.72 for CFPS, -$574M, $35M and $512M for Net Income.
November 13, 2016. Last estimates were for 2015, 2016 and 2017 of $13219M, $13972M and $14999M for Revenue, $1.07, -$0.13 and $0.48 for EPS, $2.23, $2.21 and $2.94 for CFPS and $927M, -$37M and $415M for Net Income.
November 18, 2015. Last estimates were for 2014, 2015 and 2016 of $20261M, $19639M and $19850M for Revenue, $1.93, $1.70 and $1.65 for EPS, $5.00, $4.61 and 4.91 for CFPS and $1482M, $1373M and $1352M for Net Income.
November 8, 2014. Last estimates were for 2013, 2014 and 2015 of $17917M, $16900M and $17290M CDN$, $1.70, $1.90 and $2.04 for EPS, $4.21, $4.32 and $4.64 for CFPS.
November 17, 2013. Last estamtes were for 2012 and 2013 of $16961 and 16183M for Revewnue $$2.02 and $2.20 for EPS.
Nov 12, 2012. The last estimates were for 2011 and 2012 of $14.290M and $14.948M CDN$. $1.80 and $2.25 EPS CDN$ amd $4.15 and $4.42 CDN$ CF.
Oct 2011. Last I looked I got esitamtes for 2010 and 2011 of $1.35 and $1.65 for Earnings and $3.20 and $4.13 for Cash Flow.
Oct 2010 NOTE: for changes in 2009, I did not adjust ROE lines to the end of the spreadsheet. ROE is simply net income over book value so it is a relative value. I was not looking for increase in net income
over a period of time. Also, note that Cenovus Engergy is reporting in CDNS and I used these reports. I put the original ECA spreadsheet into Old_Research_portfolio file.
I was reading the split and the company looked at it as a 50/50 split, but the market not quite so simple. However, I am dealing with the split as 50/50.
On November 30, 2009 stock worth $56.57. On Dec 2nd, shares worth $56.43. On Dec 3rd, worth 28.81. Stock did not fall until Dec 3rd.
This company split into two companies in the later part of 2009. A a special resolution was approved on the Arrangement to divide the Corporation into two highly focused and independent, publicly traded companies - Encana Corporation and Cenovus Energy Inc.
Oct 10, 2010. When I last looked at this company, I got 2009 and 2010 estimates of $3.80 and $3.00 for earnings and $10 and $9 for CF in US$.
May 13, 2008, since I last looked at this stock, the CDN US currency gap as narrowed. This shows up in the dividend being lower in CDN$.
Apr 11 2009 AR 2008
AP 2007. It has of course done very well as it is in Oil. I have done well and will do so while oil is high.
AP 2006. TD still rates this a buy. I have done well with this stock, but lets face it, I only have 100 shares so it is not going to affect much.
AP 2005. TD Newcrest is still rating this a buy. I have very little into resources. Good to hold for now.
I think I can make money on this stock. They can make a profit.
Called Alberta Energy Co. - to 2001 $2,360.00
I do not know where I got 2001 figures from, all reports seem different from mine.
Split 2009 value of shares 51.51% Encana 1.94 48.49% Cenovus 2.06
bacically halfed all values and kept shares same value. This should make spreadsheet correct for past values.
Sector
Energy, Resources
What should this stock accomplish?
Personally, I buy resource stocks when they are low and sell when they are high. Rsecource stocks always are boom and bust and it is always best to buy at bust times.
Would I buy this company and Why.
If I wanted to buy a resource stock, I would consider this one.
Dividends
Third cycle dividends. Dividends are paid near the end of the months of March, June, September and December. Dividends are declared for shareholders of record in one month and paid in that month.
For example dividends declared for shareholders of record of March 15, 2013 were paid on March 28, 2013.
Why am I following this stock.
This is another stock that was talked about at the 2010 Money Show in Toronto. There were those who liked oil companies and they mentioned both Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX-SU) and Cenovus
Energy Inc. (TSX-CVE). This company was split off from EnCana (TSX-ECA) in 2009. My spreadsheet reflects this split. I was also following Alberta Energy Co. (TSX-AEC) into EnCana.
How they make their money
Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated oil company. The Company's operations include enhanced oil recovery (EOR) properties and established crude oil and natural gas production in Alberta and
Saskatchewan. It also has ownership interests in two refineries in Illinois and Texas, United States.
Alberta Energy Company Ltd. (AEC) and PanCanadian Energy Corporation (PanCanadian) companies merged to form EnCana in April 2002. EnCana split into EnCana and Cenovus (Nov 2009).
For most ratios, lower is better when looking for a good stock price. However, there are exceptions such as for yield and asset/liability ratios and here you want a higher ratios to indicate a good stock price.
Also, for the Operational Profit Margin, a higher percentage is better. With the OPM, you should only compare companies in similar industries.
On Nov 22 2013 Shares %, Val $M
Selling last 30 days 0.020 $530,129
Officers - sale price $26.27
Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M Shares %, Val $M
On Nov 17 2013 Nov 11 2012 Nov 17 2013 Nov 08 2014 Nov 18 2015 Nov 13 2016 Nov 16 2017
Pourbaix, Alex 0.427 0.03%
CEO - Shares - Amount $5.491
Options - percentage 0.942 0.08%
Options - amount $12.115
Ferguson, Brian Charles 0.106 0.01% 0.106 0.01% 0.123 0.02% 0.140 0.02% 0.148 0.02% ceased insider Nov 2017
CEO - Shares - Amount $3.528 $3.237 $2.949 $2.458 $3.005
Options - percentage 1.353 0.18% 1.816 0.24% 2.351 0.31% 2.956 0.35% 3.601 0.43%
Options - amount $45.049 $55.221 $56.357 $51.734 $73.096
Ruste, Ivor Melvin 0.015 0.00% 0.022 0.00% 0.037 0.00% 0.049 0.01% 0.051 0.01% 0.063 0.01%
CFO - Shares - Amount $0.489 $0.671 $0.881 $0.855 $1.031 $0.815
Options - percentage 0.421 0.06% 0.591 0.08% 0.791 0.10% 0.983 0.12% 1.194 0.14% 1.409 0.11%
Options - amount $14.029 $17.956 $18.961 $17.196 $24.235 $18.118
Chhina, Harbir Singh 0.420 0.05% 0.423 0.05% 0.526 0.04%
Officer - Shares - Amount $7.355 $8.595 $6.762
Options - percentage 1.338 0.16% 1.539 0.18% 1.854 0.15%
Options - amount $23.418 $31.241 $23.843
Brannan, John 0.100 0.01% 0.106 0.01% 0.112 0.01%
Officer - Shares - Amount $3.325 $3.208 $2.690
Options - percentage 1.049 0.14% 1.214 0.16% 1.425 0.19%
Options - amount $34.906 $36.893 $34.145
Cunningham, Ralph Sanford 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% Ceased to be insider
Director - Shares - Amount $0.000 $0.000 $0.000 on April 27, 2016
Options - percentage 0.135 0.02% 0.142 0.02% 0.158 0.02%
Options - amount $4.105 $3.392 $2.759
Delaney, Ian William 0.150 0.02% 0.150 0.02% 0.150 0.02% 0.150 0.02% 0.300 0.02%
Director - Shares - Amount $4.994 $3.596 $2.625 $3.045 $3.858
Options - percentage 0.155 0.02% 0.183 0.02% 0.199 0.02% 0.219 0.03% 0.231 0.02%
Options - amount $5.148 $4.375 $3.491 $4.445 $2.966
Daniel, Patrick Darold 0.074 0.01%
Chairman - Shares - Amt $0.956
Options - percentage 0.182 0.01%
Options - amount $2.342
Grandin, Michael Anthony 0.123 0.02% 0.123 0.01% 0.123 0.01%
Chairman - Shares - Amt $2.951 $2.155 $2.499
Options - percentage 0.137 0.02% 0.153 0.02% 0.161 0.02%
Options - amount $3.275 $2.685 $3.267
Increase in O/S Shares 1.344 0.18% 0.970 0.13% 1.057 0.14% 0.000 0.00% 0.000 0.00% Yes 0 for 2015
due to SO $44.74 $29.488 $25.336 $0.000 $0.000
Book Value $49.000 $31.000 $32.000 $0.000 $0.000
Insider Buying -$0.882 -$0.030 -$6.745
Insider Selling $0.000 $0.556 $0.001
Net Insider Selling $2.333 -$0.882 $0.526 -$6.745
% of Market Cap 0.01% -0.01% 0.00% -0.04%
Directors 9 9 10 11 11
Women 1 11% 1 11% 1 10% 2 18% 2 18%
Minorities 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
Institutions/Holdings 555 69.68% 523 67.76% 511 72.02% 493 73.05% 202 43.76% 473 61.99%
Total Shares Held 526.036 69.58% 512.125 67.74% 545.201 65.43% 608.647 73.04% 80.742 9.69% 761.691 61.99%
Increase/Decrease -6.655 -1.28% 1.887 0.37% 6.491 1.20% 17.783 3.01% 1.205 1.52% 6.255 0.83%
Starting No. of Shares 519.381 510.238 538.711 590.863 79.537 Reuters 755.436 Reuters
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